Two options for the aftermarket of the hottest Tia

2022-07-28
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Two options for the future market of Tianjiao 0809 contract

it is only half a month before the delivery of the Shanghai Jiao 0809 contract. At present, HuJiao 0809 maintains a relatively strong market. Where will Tianjiao 0809 go in the future

we believe that the favorable fundamentals are the main reason for this round of market. Influenced by such positive factors as high crude oil prices, abnormal weather in Southeast Asian production areas, and small spot production, the domestic and foreign rubber markets started a 40% rise at the end of April. However, in the main production areas of Southeast Asia, the weather conditions have improved, and the crude oil price may tear the sample or break point difference; Under the influence of negative factors such as the decline of Shanghai Jiaotong 0809, there was no downward adjustment market

after hj0809 hit a stage high on June 27, the market began to shake and consolidate, while contracts in other months showed a significant downward adjustment during this period. However, HuJiao 0809 once again hit a new high of 28530 points on July 31, and the price difference with the far month contract increased, and the long intention gradually emerged

according to the trading rules of the exchange, after the 0809 contract enters the delivery month, the one-way position of the broker member shall not exceed 1500 hands, and the one-way position of the investor shall not exceed 100 hands. Therefore, in the last few trading days of August, the position of 0809 contract should be gradually reduced. According to the recent reduction rate of the contract, in the delivery month, the unilateral position is expected to drop to 16000 hands, and the corresponding delivery inventory is 80000 tons. The e-commerce market of plastics and hardware industry of Shanghai Futures Exchange is about to burst. The inventory data released on August 22 shows that the inventory of rubber increased by 970 tons to 40435 tons on Sunday, and the inventory registered as warehouse receipts decreased by 315 tons to 19145 tons. At that time, Shi Xu finally prepared the nickel/graphene coated polyurethane sponge flexible strain sensor by using the flexible polymer packaging method. The disk ratio (unilateral position delivery quantity/inventory registered as warehouse receipts) is about 4:1. Although it is still unfavorable to the short side, it has decreased significantly compared with 13:1 at the beginning of the month

in terms of spot goods, the current high price of 0809 contract has resulted in the increasing reluctance to sell of spot production enterprises such as Hainan agricultural reclamation and Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation. Since June 17, the average spot quotation price of China rubber scr5/55\t standard glue has been stable at about 27000 yuan/ton. However, the excessive quotation has led to unsalable standard glue in the production area. Since August 6, only 50 tons of scr5/5. To some extent, this shows that the market has a very strong wait-and-see atmosphere for the current spot price

we believe that there may be two situations in the later 0809 contract trend:

first, if there is still no significant increase in the stock of the exchange in the last week of August, and the main parties can establish appropriate positions, it is possible to use the delivery period to launch a general attack on the short side to raise the futures price under the condition of meeting the position limit of the exchange. However, excessive price hikes by many parties may lead to the implementation of relevant risk control measures of the exchange. Even if many parties finally take over the spot, it may not be easy to sell tens of thousands of tons of spot at a high price due to the current popularity of the domestic spot market and the weakness of the downstream consumer industry

second, the price difference between 0809 contract and 0811 contract has converged, indicating that the Bulls may have changed to 0811 contract. In this way, even if there is an increase in inventory in the later period, the expectation of closing positions at the futures price of 0809 contract will be weakened, and the futures price will be under pressure, which will not cause much loss to many parties. In 0809, each load can only reach a certain load, and the decline of approximate positions is also conducive to the smooth delivery in the later period. It may be an ideal result for both long and short sides

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